Is the Sarnia-Lambton Market Slowing Down? Here's What July's Numbers Actually Say

If you've been hearing that the market has slowed down this year, you're not wrong, but the full picture is more nuanced than a single headline number can capture. We pulled the complete July numbers, plus the full year so far, and broke them down properly. Here's an honest look at where things actually stand.

July 2026 Snapshot

• 123 homes sold in July
• $539,551 average sale price, $485,000 median
• 34 days median True Market Exposure, our own measure of how long a home is genuinely on the market, correcting for the way relisted properties can quietly hide their real time for sale
• Sellers realized 94% of their original asking price on average

Compared to June, that's a step down. Sales dropped from 148 to 123, and the average price eased as well. July is typically a bit quieter than the spring and early-summer peak, so some of that shift lines up with the season.

Zooming Out: The Year-to-Date Picture

Here's where the "market is slowing" narrative gets its legs. Through the first seven months of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025:

• Sales are down 7.3% (775 vs. 836)
• New listings are essentially flat, up just 0.1% (1,795 vs. 1,794)
• The sales-to-new-listings ratio has eased from 46.6% to 43.2%, meaning less competition per listing than a year ago
• Average sale price is down 3.4% ($537,637 vs. $556,506); median is down 5.4% ($469,900 vs. $496,700)

More homes on the market, roughly the same amount of new supply coming on, and fewer of those listings converting into a sale. That's a real shift toward a more balanced market, and it's worth understanding rather than glossing over.

The Real Story on Speed

Here's a number most people never see. Reported "Days on Market" only counts from a property's most recent listing date. If a home was relisted partway through its time on the market, the official number resets and understates how long it's genuinely been for sale.

Our True Market Exposure (TME) methodology corrects for that by tracing the full relisting history for every home. The result: homes that sold this year took a median of 32 true days to sell, not the 23 days MLS reports show. That's a real 9-day gap, and it held steady from last year (30 true days vs. 23 reported in 2025), so it isn't a new phenomenon. It's just easy to miss if you're only looking at the headline DOM number.

What This Means If You're Buying

• More inventory to choose from than a year ago, with roughly the same amount of new supply coming on
• Less competition per listing: a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 43.2%, down from 46.6% last year
• 36.8% of sales this year involved a price reduction before the home sold, similar to last year, so there's room to negotiate on the right property

What This Means If You're Selling

• Priced right, homes are still finding buyers. Sellers realized 94.4% of original asking price on average this year, close to last year's 94.9%
• Plan for a longer runway than the headline DOM number suggests. True market exposure is running closer to a month, not three weeks
• Fewer homes are selling above asking this year (18.3% vs. 22.4% last year), a sign the market has shifted some leverage back toward buyers

Bottom Line

The numbers point to a real rebalancing this year, not just a seasonal blip: more room for buyers to negotiate, a bit more patience required to sell, and a market that's settling into a steadier pace after a few unusually fast years. None of that has to be discouraging. It just means pricing and timing matter more than they did a year or two ago.

If you want to know what any of this means for your specific street, price range, or timeline, we're always happy to talk it through. No pressure, just the real numbers.

Our Family Helping Your Family.

Lynn and Greg Findlay

EXIT Realty Community

Realtors

greg@336exit.com

519-331-2907

Preliminary data. Statistics reflect Sarnia-Lambton MLS® data pulled July 31, 2026 and may change due to corrections or updates to underlying records. Based in whole or in part on information supplied by the Sarnia-Lambton Association of REALTORS®. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Prepared by Greg Findlay, Our Family Helping Your Family, EXIT Realty Community, Brokerage, Independently Owned and Operated. Report Date: August 6, 2026.

Not intended to solicit properties already under contract. This is a general market summary and does not constitute a comparative market analysis of any specific property.